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15-yard touchdown catch by Eric Decker with 9:38 left in the first half -- ending a streak of 312 straight made PATS.Folk had s

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von jcy123 • 5.628 Beiträge

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Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is coming off of the best season of his professional career. In 2015, Newton set career-best marks in just about every statistical category en route to his first MVP award, and his 15-1 Panthers made it to the Super Bowl. While you can say Newton had a wonderful defense at his back, few would look at Newtons supporting cast on paper and suggest that the former first overall pick had much help. His tackles were castoffs Michael Oher and Mike Remmers. His top wideout, Kelvin Benjamin, went down for the year before the season even started. Newton elevated the likes of Ted Ginn Jr. and Devin Funchess into a functional receiving corps.Every other playoff team had more weapons than Carolina. With Newton, that didnt matter.But 2015 is in the books. Theres a chance weve already seen Newtons best season, which isnt remotely bad considering a player who peaks as an MVP is quite a player. During his career, though, Newton has continually taken on challenges and exceeded expectations. He led Auburn to the most unlikely of national titles, and after a poll of league executives suggested Blaine Gabbert was the best quarterback in the 2011 draft, Newton emerged as the best offensive player from his draft class. Cam led the Panthers to a division title in 2013, and in the famously topsy-turvy NFC South, Carolina managed to repeat during an up-and-down 2014 before a dominant 2015. His growth has also occurred during a time when the surrounding cast, from weapons to blocking, has remained a question mark.So, now what?Newton doesnt need to get better. He could take a step backward and still be an incredibly valuable quarterback. For a player as driven and impactful as he is, though, the possibility that he might still improve is exciting. As is the case with every player in football, there are places where Newton can grow and further develop. The former first overall pick only turned 27 in May, and theres still a reasonable chance Newton pushes forward. Lets figure out what an even better version of Newton might look like in 2016 and beyond.Cam in 2015Figuring out what an improved Newton might look like in 2016 starts by understanding what he did in 2015 and how likely some elements of that performance are to carry over. Its entirely possible that he could perform better on a play-by-play basis and produce worse numbers or win fewer games.While Newton posted career bests in many categories, a look at those broader categories doesnt produce many dramatic outliers. His completion percentage (59.8 percent) and yards per attempt (7.8) were right in line or slightly ahead of his career averages. His interception rate dropped from a career mark of 2.8 percent to 2.0 percent, which is roughly a difference of about 3-4 interceptions per year in a typical Newton season. His passer rating leaped from a career mark of 85.4 to 99.4, and his 57.4 QBR through 2014 jumped to a mark of 66.0 last season.Theres nothing outlandish in those numbers, which itself tells a story: Newton didnt have the statistical record of a typical MVP-caliber quarterback in the traditional way. Ive noted in the past in looking at MVPs that they tend to be quarterbacks on highly successful teams (duh) and/or players who lead their position in terms of fantasy points scored. Newton didnt produce the sort of outlandish passing efficiency figures of a Tom Brady, but his incredible value as a runner led him to lead all NFL quarterbacks in fantasy points in a standard league.Carolinas interior running is the heart of its offense, with an inventive scheme from offensive coordinator Mike Shula built to support the core of his team. The strength of the Panthers offensive line is on the interior, with All-Pro center Ryan Kalil joined by emerging star right guard Trai Turner to carve out holes for Newton and lead running back Jonathan Stewart. This combination helped the Panthers become?the second-best team in the league in what Football Outsiders describes as power situations,?where they needed two yards or less to go for a first down or a touchdown. Newton was 26-of-30 (86.7 percent) in picking up first downs with two yards or less to go last year against a league average of 66.9 percent. Thats efficiency in an entirely different way.Newton led the league in fantasy points by scoring a whole lot of touchdowns, and if theres an element of his performance which might not be sustainable, it starts there. Newton ran for 10 touchdowns last season after averaging eight over his previous four campaigns, which isnt crazy. As a passer, though, he threw for a whopping 35 scores after averaging 20 his previous four campaigns. 7.1 percent of his pass attempts resulted in touchdowns, which led the league and stood out notably compared to his previous average of 4.3 percent.Those touchdowns were a product of remarkable -- and perhaps unsustainable -- success in the red zone. It makes sense that the Panthers would be good inside the oppositions 20-yard-line, but they were incredible in 2015. Carolina scored a league-high 5.54 points per red zone trip last season. With much of the same personnel, notably Newton at the helm for 30 of 32 games, they were 15th in the same category in 2013 and 23rd in 2014. As I wrote about earlier this summer, red zone performance is remarkably inconsistent from year-to-year. History suggests that Carolina -- and by proxy, Newton, who threw 24 touchdowns in the red zone without a pick -- will struggle to be as effective in the red zone in 2016.Saving their best performance for key moments was a huge reason the Panthers won 15 games and why Newton won MVP. Its not just that he was great; its when he was great which stood out. If you could craft a case for when to weight a players best moments during a season, you would build the resume Newton built in 2015. He got better as the year went along and played his best when the Panthers needed him most.During the first nine weeks of the season, while the Panthers were starting 8-0, Newton posted a QBR of just 50.7, which was just behind Ryan Mallett for 24th in the league. Remember, QBR includes his performance as a runner, too; if you just want to consider traditional passing stats, Newton was 26th in the league in passer rating and 21st in adjusted yards per attempt. I dont believe Newton was truly a below-average starter -- the context of the offense built around him means something -- but I do think its fair to say that he wasnt as dominant as his 8-0 record suggested.Over the second half of the year, though, Newtons performance jumped. His QBR spiked to 79.5, which was the seventh-best mark in football and in line with the leagues best passers. The typical NFL starter had three games with an QBR of 85 or greater last season; Newton had four of them in a five-week span between Week 11 and Week 15, cementing his hold as the top MVP candidate. While he fell off during Carolinas only loss of the season (to the Falcons in Week 16), Newton had already sealed up the hardware. His second-half performance might be a leap to a new level of play, but it is usually better to use all of a players performance to project how hell do in the future, as I talked about with Derek Carr last week.Likewise, if you think a great quarterback needs to play his best in the fourth quarter, Newton was your man. Through three quarters last year, Newtons QBR was an above-average 63.1. In the fourth quarter and overtime, though, nobody beat Cams QBR of 76.5. He posted a passer rating of 104.8 in the final stanza, and when the Panthers needed to get back into a game or close one out, their offense was devastating. Carolina had 17 meaningful possessions last year in the fourth quarter while the game was within seven points or less. Those drives produced more scores (nine) than punts (six), with the other two ending on a blocked field goal and Newtons fumble in the loss to the Falcons. Their five touchdowns included four Newton passes (all 15 yards or more) and a 13-yard Newton run.Those sort of fourth-quarter leaps arent really sustainable. Guys dont consistently elevate their game in the fourth quarter, which is logical if you think about it for a second: Why wouldnt you just play better all the time? Andrew Lucks career is a classic example. In 2013 and 2015, Lucks QBR jumped in the fourth quarter by 31.1 points and 42.1 points, respectively. In 2012, Lucks fourth-quarter QBR was identical to that of the previous three quarters, and in 2014, it declined by 1.2 points. Jay Cutlers QBR declined in the fourth quarter by 41.2 points in 2011; in 2012 and 2013, it improved by 38.0 points and 39.9 points. This is almost totally random.The one other thing which might have aided Newton, of course, was more help from his receivers. My memory seems to suggest that Ginn dropped a 75-yard touchdown pass from Newton each and every week, but the data isnt quite as harsh. Ginn merely dropped seven passes last year, which was tied for fifth in the league, and as you might suspect, those drops were coming on what would have been big plays for the Carolina offense. Newtons overall drop rate was 3.8 percent, which was roughly league average. On throws of 20 yards or more in the air, though, Newtons drop rate spiked to 6.8 percent, which was the second-highest in the league behind the aforementioned Gabbert, who didnt throw deep anywhere near as frequently.Cam in 2016Start thinking about ways Newton might improve in 2016, and the presence of Benjamin is a jumping-off point. Benjamin had his own drop issues as a rookie in 2015, but he is unquestionably a more effective and impactful wideout than Ginn or second-year man Funchess -- though the second-year man out of Michigan is generating plenty of camp buzz -- and should represent the second-best receiver in Newtons arsenal behind star tight end Greg Olsen. The same caliber of pass from Newton is more likely to turn into a successful play with Benjamin on the other end.There are elements of Newtons performance which statistically lag behind his peers, but I think they may be subject to the style of offense Carolina plays and the nature of Newtons style.?Start with his completion percentage. At 59.8 percent last year and 59.6 percent over his five-year career, it lags behind his peers. Newtons sack rate has also been higher than league average during each of his five pro seasons, although it was closest in 2015.Those stats arent strong enough to resist dramatically different contexts, and all you need to do is watch Newton to know that hes not playing in a typical offense. The Panthers ask him to chuck the ball downfield as much as anybody in football. Newtons average pass traveled 10.3 yards in the air last season, which was third in the league behind Carson Palmer and Tyrod Taylor. Since entering the league, the typical Newton pass has gone 9.4 yards, which is the longest average throw in football over that timeframe.When you keep the context in mind, Newtons completion percentage is just fine. Football Outsiders has a statistic I helped create called plus-minus, which adjusts a quarterbacks completion percentage for the distance and location of his throws. Theyve further adjusted the metric to account for the impact of dropped passes. When you account for the distance of his throws and the frequency with which his receivers dropped them, Newtons completion percentage was actually above-average and 13th in the NFL last year. Newton could still take another step forward from where he is now, of course, given that Palmer and Taylor each managed to complete nearly 64 percent of their passes while throwing similarly far downfield, but his completion percentage isnt subpar.The natural place for Newton to improve, given Carolinas style of play, is on play-action. It makes sense that a team with a dominant running game like Carolinas would be great when Newton holds linebackers and safeties with play fakes, and while ESPNs play-action statistics dont count run-pass options (RPOs), Newton does create short, efficient completions for himself by reading the defense correctly when Shula calls them.On traditional play-action passes, though, Newton wasnt very good last season. He finished 30th in the league in QBR on those throws with a 48.8 mark, including four of his 10 picks. Contrast that to Taylor and Palmer, his fellow downfield bombers, who finished first and second in QBR on play-action passes. This wasnt a small sample size fluke, either; 28.7 percent of Newtons dropbacks came with play-action, which was third in the league behind Colin Kaepernick and Teddy Bridgewater.Its fair to say that Newton wont be that bad on play-action in 2016, given that he was better in years past. Newtons QBR on play-action throws was 17th in the league in 2013 and 13th in 2014. Its still a surprise, though, that he hasnt been downright dominant on those play-action attempts, especially given how effective the Carolina rushing attack has been over that timeframe. If theres an opportunity for Newton to grow and finish in the top-five somewhere new in 2016, its here.The most likely scenario for Newton in 2016, as is the case for the Panthers, is that they each decline a bit from their red-hot 2015 and still settle in the leagues upper echelon. That would represent not just an incredibly valuable player but a staggering leap forward when you put Newtons history in context.The same guy who was a controversial first overall selection and a quarterback expected to look up at Gabberts NFL success is the clear face of the Carolina franchise (if not arguably the league as a whole) and a franchise quarterback. He doesnt need to get better, and he still could anyway. 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The gold medal went to Swiss snowboarder Iouri Podladtchikov. The Latest on Week 1 of the NFL season (all times Eastern):11:40 p.m.The New England Patriots have survived a last-minute field goal attempt to beat the Arizona Cardinals 23-21 in Jimmy Garoppolos debut.The Patriots took a two-point lead on Stephen Gostkowskis 32-yard field goal with just over 6 minutes, but Arizona marched into field goal range.A low snap threw kicker Matt Catanzaro off and he pulled his 47-yard field goal left.Garoppolo threw for 264 yards and a touchdown in his first game in place of Tom Brady, who has been suspended the first four games of the season for his role in Deflategate.Carson Palmer threw for 271 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald, who became the 10th player in NFL history to reach 100 receiving touchdowns.---9:55 p.m.The New England Patriots lead the Arizona Cardinals 10-7 at halftime in Jimmy Garoppolos first start at quarterback.Garoppolo is starting New Englands first four games with Tom Bradys Deflategate suspension.The 24-year-old Garoppolo completed 10 of 16 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown in the half. He connected with Chris Hogan on a 37-yard touchdown pass and helped set up Stephen Gostkowskis 47-yard field goal.Arizona scored on 3-yard pass from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald in the second quarter.---8:50 p.m.Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown a touchdown pass in his first drive as New Englands fill-in starting quarterback.The 24-year-old Garoppolo overthrew his first pass against the Arizona Cardinals, but connected on four straight after that. He capped the opening 76-yard drive with a 37-yard touchdown pass to Chris Hogan to put the Patriots up 7-0.Garoppolo hit 4 of 5 passes for 75 yards on the drive.Garoppolo, who had 31 career pass attempts before this season, is New Englands starter while Tom Brady serves a four-game suspension for the Deflategate episode.---7:50 p.m.The NFLs late afternoon slate finished up with three tight games, with Detroit, Seattle and the New York Giants scoring late to slip past their opponents.Lions kicker Matt Prater hit a 43-yard field goal with 4 seconds left to deliver the win for Detroit over Indianapolis. Quarterback Matthew Stafford led a quick 50 yard drive to set up the kick after Colts quarterback Andrew Luck tossed a short touchdown to Jack Doyle with less than 1 minute.Russell Wilson threw a touchdown to Doug Baldwin in the last minute for the Seahawks, but Miami had a chance to win with a field goal or TD after blocking the extra point attempt. But Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked as time expired on a play that appeared to catch Miami off guard with the clock running.Victor Cruz did his first end zone salsa dance since 2014, catching a TD to put the Giants up 20-19 midway through the fourth quarter. The Cowboys last drive failed when wide receiver Terrance Williams couldnt get out of bounds after a catch near midfield.---6:20 p.m.Receivers were once routinely warned to stay off Revis Island, that portion of an NFL field where Jets shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis prowled.No more.Cincinnati wide receiver A.J. Green pitched a tent there Sunday in the Bengals narrow 23-22 win, catching 12 passes for 180 yards and beating Revis on a 54-yard footrace of a touchdown in the first half.How good was his day? According to NFL Research, Bengals QB Andy Dalton had a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeting Green with Revis covering: 10-for-10, 152 yards, 1 TD.---5:25 p.m.Fantasy owners are celebrating Brandin Cooks right now. They have the steady Drew Brees to thank.Cooks emerged as the top wideout in fantasy for early games on Sunday, scoring 27 points on 143 yards and two touchdowns. Its a great sign for fantasy players who drafted him despite a somewhat down year last season for Cooks and Brees.Brees was the top quarterback, posting 32 points on 437 passing yards and four touchdowns.Fantasy players who plugged in Kansas City running back Spencer Ware for the ailing Jamaal Charles were rewarded with a big surprise -- 129 receiving yards on seven catches to go along with a touchdown and 70 yards rushing for 25 total fantasy points.---4:50 p.m.Former President George W. Bush, who was in office on 9/11, did the coin toss before the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys game near his Dallas home.Bush took the field to chants of USA, USA as he walked to midfield with former first lady Laura Bush next to him. After tossing the coin, Bush grabbed the FDNY cap off the head of New York linebacker Zak DeOssie.The crowd roared when the giant video board over the center of the field showed Bush saluting the crowd with the hat and putting it back on. Then he whistled at DeOssie to get his attention and give him the hat back.Its the third time the Giants have played on the anniversary of 9/11. They lost at Washington on the 10th anniversary five years ago.---4:45 p.m.Alex Smith dived for a touchdown on the first possession of overtime, completing the Kansas City Chiefs frantic rally from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the San Diego Chargers 33-27 in their season opener Sunday.Smith threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns, the second a back-shoulder fade to Jeremy Maclin with just over nine minutes left in the fourth quarter that trimmed the Chiefs deficit to 27-17.Cairo Santos kicked a 33-yard field goal a few minutes later, and after forcing a three-and-out, Spencer Ware finished off a four-play drive with a touchdown plunge to knot it at 27.Kansas City needed 10 plays to march 75 yards in overtime, and Smith finished off one of the biggest comebacks in franchise history with his keeper from the 2-yard line on third-and-goal.---4:25 p.m.Eagles fans are notoriously tough, but they found plenty to like about the new coach-and-QB combo unveiled at home Sunday in a 29-10 season-opening win over the Browns.New sideline boss Doug Pederson arrived there unheralded and Cleveland let the Eagles grab quarterback Carson Wentz by trading away the No. 2 pick. Bad move. Wentz completed 22-of-37 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns in his debut.In other early games, Baltimore outlasted Buffalo 13-7; Tampa Bay slipped past Atlanta 31-24; Houston beat Chicago 23-14; Green Bay handled Jacksonville 27-23; Cincinnati nudged past the New York Jets 23-22; and Minnesota overpowered Tennessee 29-16.---4:20 p.m.The Chiefs and Chargers are headed to overtime tied at 27.San Diego built a 21-3 halftime lead on the strength of Melvin Gordons first two NFL touchdowns and a pass from Philip Rivers to Danny Woodhead on blown coverage by the Kansas City defense.In fact, the Chargers still led 27-10 in the fourth quarter when Josh Lambo missed a 54-yard field goal, and the momentum swung to Kansas City. Alex Smith led the Chiefs to a pair of touchdowns around a field goal by Cairo Santos, the tying score coming on a touchdown run by Spencer Ware.- Dave Skretta in Kansas City, Missouri.---4:15 p.m.Four Miami Dolphins players kneeled during the national anthem befoore kickoff against Seattle.ddddddddddddArian Foster, Michael Thomas, Jelani Jenkins and Kenny Stills took a knee just before the anthem began. The four held their hands over their hearts as the anthem played and stood immediately at its conclusion.The Dolphins released a statement saying they encourage players and staff to stand during the anthem but recognize an individuals right to reflect during the anthem in different ways.On the opposite sideline, Seahawks players and coaches locked arm-in-arm. That included defensive back Jeremy Lane, who sat during the national anthem in the preseason finale in Oakland in a sign of support for San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick.Lane indicated earlier in the week a plan to continue sitting during the anthem but changed after the Seahawks decided to stand together as a team.Lane stood next to Richard Sherman and near coach Pete Carroll.- Tim Booth in Seattle.---3:25 p.m.Drew Brees knows a mismatch when he sees one and the Raiders paid spectacularly. On first down from his own 2, the Saints quarterback saw the Raiders defense lined up to stop the run, leaving small, speedy receiver Brandin Cooks in single coverage out wide against the taller, but slower, Sean Smith.Brees decisively floated a long pass down the left sideline, hitting Cooks in stride for the longest pass play and scoring play in Saints history. The Saints dont hesitate to acknowledge Cooks is their fastest player, and anyone watching the play saw it. He not only raced away from Smith, but also safety Reggie Nelson, who initially appeared to have an angle, only to be left in the dust.The 98-yard touchdown put New Orleans ahead 24-10 in the middle of the third quarter.The play was Brees longest career completion. It also gave Brees 309 yards and three TDs passing to that point.The previous longest scoring play in Saints history was a 90-yard pass play from Billy Joe Hobert to Eddie Kennison against Atlanta on Oct. 10, 1999.-Brett Martel in New Orleans.---3:20 p.m.What a turnaround in Atlanta.The Falcons were leading until Tampa Bay scored a touchdown in the closing seconds of the first half. The Buccaneers quickly tacked on two more scores in the third period to build a 31-13 lead.Jameis Winston is putting on quite a show.Bouncing back from an early interception, the Buccaneers quarterback is 21 of 30 for 268 yards and four touchdowns.- Paul Newberry in Atlanta.---3 p.m.Jimmy Graham is active for the season opener as he recovers from a knee injury.The game Sunday against Miami comes 9+ months after the Seattle Seahawks tight end tore the patellar tendon in his right knee. Graham went through an extensive pregame workout about two hours before kickoff and his name was not on the inactive list.Graham had 48 catches but only two touchdowns in 2015, his first season with the Seahawks. He was injured in late November in a game against Pittsburgh, just when he was finding more of a role in the offense.The Seahawks will be without rookie guard Germain Ifedi after suffering an ankle injury in practice this week. Ifedi was wearing a walking boot on his left foot prior to the game.Miami was without standout center Mike Pouncey (hip) and wide receiver DeVante Parker (hamstring).- Tim Booth reporting from Seattle.---2:30 p.m.Green Bay Packers Jordy Nelson is looking good in his comeback from injury.Playing a meaningful game for the first time since the 2014 NFC championship, Nelson had a 6-yard touchdown reception late in the second quarter in the teams season opener at Jacksonville. It was his third catch in four plays, hauling in previous completions of 8 and 6 yards. Nelson, who injured a knee in the 2015 preseason and missed the entire season, hasnt shown his usual explosiveness but just being back on the field is huge for the Packers.- Mark Long in Jacksonville, Florida.---2:25 p.m.Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen has been carted off the field late in the second quarter of their game against the Chiefs with what appears to be a serious right knee injury.Allen was making a cut toward the sideline on a passing route when he went down. He ripped off his helmet as trainers began tending to him, and was helped into the back of a cart and taken off the field.There was no immediate word on the extent of the injury.Allen, who missed the last eight games a year ago with a lacerated kidney, had six catches for 63 yards before he was hurt. The Chargers led 21-3.- Dave Skretta in Kansas City, Missouri.---2:20 p.m.Tempers are starting to flare in the Chiefs-Chargers game.Late in the first half, with the Chargers already leading 21-3, Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters and San Diego offensive lineman Orlando Franklin began jawing with each other.Eventually, the two teams got into a shoving match on the field.When play resumed, Chiefs coach Andy Reid had brought Peters to the sideline for a play.- Dave Skretta in Kansas City, Missouri.---2:15 p.m.Tampa Bay backup linebacker Jacquies Smith has been carted to the locker room in Atlanta with a right knee injury.A third-year player, Smith was injured while covering a punt in the first quarter. The seriousness of the injury isnt yet known, but the Buccaneers say hes done for the game.Falcons defensive end Brooks Reed also left the field after sustaining a shoulder injury, but was able to return before halftime.---2:10 p.m.Jets kicker Nick Folk missed the first extra point of his career, booting it wide right and appearing to hit the upright after a 15-yard touchdown catch by Eric Decker with 9:38 left in the first half -- ending a streak of 312 straight made PATS.Folk had set the NFL record for most extra points without a miss with 322 overall, including the playoffs.The reliable veteran, who held off Duke rookie Ross Martin in training camp, also had a 22-yard attempt blocked in the first quarter against Cincinnati when Bengals defensive end Margus Hunt tipped Folks low kick.Folk, in his seventh season with New York, missed the last eight games of last year with a quadriceps injury.- Dennis Waszak in East Rutherford, New Jersey.---2:10 p.m.In the early going of his Falcons career, Mohamed Sanu is providing quite a complement to Julio Jones in the Atlanta passing game.Sanus first catch with the Falcons was a 59-yarder in Sundays season opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That set up a field goal by Matt Bryant that tied the game at 3.Then, Sanu hauled in a 5-yard touchdown pass from Matt Ryan to give Atlanta a 10-3 lead at the end of the first quarter. The receiver finished the period with three catches for 68 yards, while Jones was still looking for his first catch of the year.Sanu was a free-agent signee during the offseason. He had 33 catches for the Bengals in 2015.- Paul Newberry in Atlanta.---AP NFL websites: http://pro32.ap.org and http://twitter.com/AP-NFL ' ' '

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