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making it far in the main event.13. TnC GamingThis qualifier squad had an impressive run through the
making it far in the main event.13. TnC GamingThis qualifier squad had an impressive run through the
in Weihnachts-Forum von Planet Xmas 11.11.2018 07:12von jcy123 • 5.628 Beiträge
One of the great advantages of fantasy basketball over football is sample size. Eighty-two games versus 16. Six months versus four. Twenty-six weeks versus 16. Two hundred possessions versus 25.Theres plenty of time to revert to the mean. Whether a player is flourishing (Gorgui Dieng) or floundering (Kristaps Porzingis), they have about 78 games or so to get back to normal.But what if a player is coming to grips with a new normal?The NBA posted a particularly dramatic offseason this summer with 10 coaching changes and high-octane free agency ... fueled by an ungodly amount of newly created cap space.Players were placed within new zip codes ... systems ... rotations. Many of the factors that drive fantasy production are driven by chemistry. Sometimes, just a single new element can throw off a players entire fantasy outlook.One should never, ever overreact to the opening week of the NBA season. But it is more illustrative of a players fantasy value than a month of preseason activity.And right now, there are a few players you may need to be just a little concerned about.Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 7 (13.69 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 48 (5.03 points)Tom Thibodeau is one of the NBAs finest coaches. A hyper-intense, defense-first maven. A culture transformer. A leader who stresses the little things that dont end up in a box score.And therein lies the problem.Because things that dont end up in box scores dont help us.Thibodeau is a noted fantasy-value serial killer. But in a way, the notation is unwarranted. If youre a selfish offensive player more concerned with getting yours? Thibodeau can chew your numbers up.But if you defend your position and rebound well, you wont have too much to worry about. Just ask Jimmy Butler.Towns is an across-the-board producer. He generates numbers in nooks and crannies (4.3 assists per game, 1.0 3-pointers) that lie beyond the parameters of a post player.But his rebounds per game are decidedly down -- from 10.5 to 6.7. And while were dealing with an astonishingly small sample size, there is one large variable that concerns me.An active, high-minute, fully operational, recently well-paid Gorgui Dieng is a very large variable.Long one of fantasys most underrated players (due to Sam Mitchells inexplicable penchant for giving lesser talents his minutes), Dieng is going predictably nuts under Thibodeau. Because Dieng is Thibodeaus kind of guy.He rebounds. He blocks shots. He protects the rim with aplomb.Towns is 48th on the player rater. Dieng is 12th. Towns is collecting under seven rebounds a game. Dieng is hoarding 11.Its only three games. Yes, Dieng could be celebrating his new four-year, $64 million extension. But if he continues to harness 34.0 minutes per game, he could erase just enough of Towns rebounds and blocks to drive Towns down into a late-first-round valuation.Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 18 (11.29 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 128 (1.46 points)There was a lot of preseason palaver concerning Kevin Durants siphoning of Stephen Currys production. And while Curry hasnt been quite his league-leading 2015-16 self to date (20th overall), it seems as if he will adjust.Curry produces in many areas. He has several statistical categories he can draw upon for fantasy value.Klay Thompson is another story. Thompsons top-20 2015-16 campaign relied on his elite standing in two areas: points and 3-pointers.(Thompson also shot 87 percent at the free throw line. But he averaged only 2.8 free throw attempts a game. I would argue that Thompsons .425 3-point percentage -- across 8.1 attempts a game -- made his .470 field goal percentage borderline elite.)I never quite understood why there wasnt more concern surrounding Durants effect on Thompson. Thompsons a catch-and-shoot player. Maybe the NBAs best catch-and-shoot player. He doesnt require a high usage rate to deliver value.Thompson just needs to catch and shoot 3-point attempts ... and make them.But if Thompson isnt making his 3-point shots? If hes, say, 3-for-28 from deep over his first four games? Thats a serious fantasy problem. Because shooting about 42 percent from deep is the fulcrum that leverages Thompson into the top 20.The volume isnt that far off. Thompsons 16.5 field goal attempts per game is right up there with his 2015-16 average (17.3 FGA). His 7.0 3-point attempts are within striking distance of last seasons 8.1 (a 14 percent drop-off).So what gives?Thompson is a rhythm guy. A system guy. A player that relies on pace and spacing. By the way, thats a condition for most elite shooting guard production, since so much elite SG play is 3-point-driven.Thompson can be streaky. He can let emotion interfere with his play. Shot makers thrive on flow. Confidence. (Which really means little more than, Yeah, hes a shooting guard.)But when you go from option two on offense to a distant, remote third option? Behind two top-five players? And you have a shooters mentality? And youre the emotional opposite of your combustible power forward (who doesnt need to make shots to create elite value)?It may portend a permanent shift in overall production.Thompsons the clear victim of KD-to-CA. But Thompson isnt going to shoot 11 percent from behind the arc for an entire season. Its just a bad opening week.But I do believe those of you that drove Thompsons average draft position up to 24.9 are going to walk away slightly disappointed.Trailing behind Curry and Durant, Thompson may be more of a fourth-round kind of guy. Thats not bad. But changes in rotation can hurt when youre elite in one to two categories.Kristaps Porzingis, PF, New York Knicks2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 47 (6.90 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 87 (3.23 points)Of just about any NBA player in fantasy, it would have been easiest to predict an early season dip for Porzingis.New coach. New system. Several new veteran teammates. New point guard. Heightened expectations. (And Porzingis punches the clock in the NBAs toughest place to play given heightened expectations.)Porzingis nadir arrived last night against the high-pace, Mike DAntoni-driven Rockets. He didnt convert a single field goal attempt. He scored three points and sat most of the fourth quarter.The Knicks need to get Porzingis the ball. More explicitly? Derrick Rose needs to get Porzingis the ball. Plain, clear and simple.Porzingis can still block shots (1.8 per game). His 3-point production has increased in both volume and efficiency (1.5 3-pointers on .375 shooting).But Rose is averaging only 2.5 assists per game. I dont know how many of those dimes went to Porzingis, but from watching last nights game? It hasnt been much.I was excited to see how Joakim Noah meshed up front with Porzingis. And Noah has delivered in the assist column to date (5.5 per game).Rose badly needs to find some rhythm with Porzingis in the post.Porzingis was advertised as entering the season with more of a commitment to low-post play. And while his percentage of 3-point attempts has risen (from .274 to .348), his attempts from 3 to 9 feet have dropped (from .184 to .152).In what is supposed to be a sophomore leap year, Porzingis usage rate is regressing, from 22.9 to 18.4 (when its projected to rise to 25.6).Its waaaaay early. The new-look Knicks arent clicking as of yet. Jeff Hornacek is a fine coach. Porzingis is still an All-Star in the making ... with top-20 fantasy upside.But you have to wonder if the Rose experiment at PG isnt going to shave a round off Porzingis season-long value.Andre Drummond, C Detroit Pistons2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 114 (3.19 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 119 (1.93 points)DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers2015-16 Player Rater Rank: 56 (6.00 points) 2016-17 Player Rater Rank: 204 (-1.21 points)Im not concerned with Drummond. I didnt draft Drummond.Meanwhile, Drummond is leading the league in rebounding (13.6 REB). Jordan (11.3 REB) isnt too far behind.Both players are averaging double-digits in points (12.6 for Drummond, 10.0 for Jordan). Both players are struggling just a little from the field versus their historical output (.429 for Drummond, .571 for Jordan).Drummond is 119th on the player rater. Jordan is 204th.Jordan is dealing with an early-season finger injury. He will start blocking more shots. Jordans elite shot-blocking averages mean he will eventually swat his way into fantasys top 60.Drummond will make a few more shots per game. But because he hasnt displayed a propensity for elite shot-blocking production, Drummonds ceiling is probably in the 80s at best.And Drummonds ADP was 26.6. Jordans ADP was 31.8.If you drafted either of them in the third round? You made a sucker bet. Because their values wont go anywhere near where you predicted as long as they continue to be two of the worst free throw shooters of all time!This has nothing to do with player movement, a new coach or a new system. It has to do with everyone in Fantasyland starting two below-rock-bottom free throw percentages and ignoring them in favor of volume-based stats.Jordans floor rises because hes insulated by his shot-blocking. But Drummonds value doesnt have that kind of protection.Dont say I didnt warn you. Cheap Air Max Free Shipping . The 15th-ranked Canadian men lost the opening two games of their European tour: 19-15 to No. 17 Georgia and 21-20 to No. Cheap Air Max Shoes Online . But by the time the game started, the Toronto Raptors forward felt even worse. And, for three quarters, it showed as Gay shot a woeful three-for-13 from the field. http://www.airmaxcheapwholesale.com/ .Y. -- Leading 3-0 with only 11:25 left, the Colorado Avalanche committed a seemingly meaningless penalty to give the New York Islanders a power play. Cheap Nike Air Max Clearance . The injury bothered Bledsoe in the Suns victory over the Clippers on Monday and he sat out the teams home loss to Memphis on Thursday night. Air Max Sale Cheap . With the short-handed Warriors needing help from someone -- anyone -- to stop a three-game skid, ONeal returned from right knee and groin injuries that had sidelined him for four games and put up season highs with 18 points and eight rebounds. It was just enough to help lift Golden State to a 102-101 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday night. Eighteen teams have assembled in Seattle, Washington, to compete for the greatest prize pool in esports history. The sixth annual International will host the best of the best in Dota 2, and over the course of two weeks, the pool will be whittled down until only one team is left standing to claim the $8 million prize.Its no secret that this years International is anyones game, more so than almost any year before it. The worldwide scene has been strengthened by the addition of the majors, and ranking these teams was a task. Heres our breakdown of where the teams stand on the eve of TI6.1. OGThere is little doubt that OG is at the height of its game. Coming off the teams second major win of the year at Manila, this squad has stuck it out through thick and thin, and has come out a year later as the favorite for the top spot. Both Johan n0tail Sundstein and Amer Miracle- Barqawi have excelled in core positions, but every player on this team is a threat, from supports to captain and cores.2. NewbeeThis top Chinese squad rarely makes an appearance outside of its homeland, usually content to keep its secrets close domestically. This is one of the few squads who can reliably take games off every other team in Seattle. With a veteran like Wong Chuan Hock Chuan on the roster, and Hu Kaka Luangzhi in the captains seat, Newbee will be looking to be the first team to take home the Aegis twice. With the fast, dominant Dota 2 its been playing and the results it puts up at every international event, it would be no surprise to see the team in the grand finals.3. Team LiquidLiquid seems to be the Dota equivalent of always a bridesmaid, never a bride. The European pros have looked strong in every showing, always coming within inches of the title just to be knocked out in the grand finals. Still, this many second-place finishes could mean the team comes into Seattle with a chip on its shoulder. Jesse JerAx Vainikka has become one of the best four-roles in the game, captain and drafter Kuro KuroKy Salehi Takhasomi can work wonders in the pick/bans, and core Lasse MATUMBAMAN Urpalainens wide pool and brutally effective Lycan forces teams to ban or deal with the character. Team Liquid may have been spurned before, but now its primed and ready.4. Wings GamingWings has become the team to watch, and gradually, the team to beat. A lackluster showing at Manila might have shaken the faithful a little, but a promising run through the Chinese qualifiers and a win at The Summit 5 reassured the worried. On the back of incredible players like Chu Shadow Zeyu and the massive hero pools of every player on the team, Wings are the most likely to shake up the meta and knock off complacent contenders.5. MVP.PhoenixMVP.Phoenix will always perform at LANs. The South Korean squad has been holding onto the title of underdog throughout the year, putting up solid finishes at tournament after tournament. A year ago, the story was MVPs miraculous run through TI5. This year, with dual cores Pyo MP No-a and Kim QO Seon-yeob, and an aggressive, consistent playstyle and the rankings this team has put up? MVP could be looking much higher than the middle of the pack.6. LGD GamingAnother Chinese squad that hasnt been as prevalent on the international stage, LGD has shown it can hang with the best with a fourth place finish in Manila. Theres no doubt that Zhang xiao8 Ning, captain of LGD, has the experience and draft know-how to lead the team into a solid placing, and the team will need to put up more solid performances if it wants to ascend beyond the upper-middle of the pool. Right now, this lineup has the talent and intelligence, but needs an extra push to make the breakout performance it needs.7. Natus VincereComing off its first LAN win of the year at the StarLadder grand finals, NaVi is riding high. The fresh, aggressive lineup has come into its own over the course of the year, centered around longtime NaVi mid laner Danil Dendi Ishutin. With former players and new faces on the team, this might actually be the year for fans to exclaim NaVi is back. Natus Vincere is still a dark horse, but perhaps the most promising bet you could make for an upset run for the top.8. Team SecretThe reformed Team Secret, with Kanishka BuLba Sosale in the offlane, put on quite a performance at the recent StarLadder finals. That, combined with a strong run through the EU qualifiers, is enough to at least quiet naysayers who might point to the teams rough outing in Manila. Artour Arteezy Babaev has looked particularly impresssive, using his mid lane Mirana to great effect, but once again, eyes are on Jacky EternaLEnVy Mao to match tempo with Babaev.dddddddddddd. Evil GeniusesClinton Fear Loomis slid back into the carry role with ease, and Saahil UNiVeRsE Arora has fit back in quite naturally with his former teammates. The biggest question remains, though, if this team can get back into TI-shape. A good showing at StarLadder helped ease worries, but the boys in blue are still working uphill against negative expectations. EG wont enter TI with as impressive a resume as last years, but dont count them out either.10. Vici Gaming RebornA few weeks ago, VGR could have been much higher on the list, but a variety of factors have made its standing headed into TI6 a little more shaky. Chief among these issues are the visa problems that have been plaguing Vicis offlaner, Zhou Yang Haiyang. A crucial cog in Reborns machine, Yangs appearance in Seattle is still up in the air. Vici Gaming Reborn has put up impressive performances against the likes of Wings and NaVi, but inconsistency and outside issues could lead to a rough tournament.11. FnaticThe crowd-favorites of SEA are difficult to gauge going into any tournament. The teams results vary, from a solid third place at StarLadder to a seventh/eighth at ESL One Frankfurt, and then back to beating teams like MVP.Phoenix. Look to Yeik MidOne Zheng Nai, who has been a huge playmaker for Fnatic in recent series, to make the big wins happen and pull Fnatic ahead of the pack.12. Digital ChaosIts a testament to the quality of the overall Dota 2 scene that Digital Chaos sits at this spot on our rankings. An American team that has more than a few victories under its belt, DC sports impressive talent and some big potential for upsets. The greatest stumbling block for this team will be in consistency. Digital Chaos can be a real competitor at The International, but finding its stride will be paramount to making it far in the main event.13. TnC GamingThis qualifier squad had an impressive run through the SEA region, taking the top spot over Fnatic to advance straight to The International. TnC is impressive, but also untested. This squad has little experience outside of the SEA region, and will have the most tape to study and prep for.14. AllianceDespite being the same squad that took TI3, this reunited Alliance team cant seem to find good footing. Each majors showing for Alliance has been rough, and despite all the right players being in the right place, a mixture of outplays and coordination issues have frequently led to disappointing results. If the crew can pull it together, a solid run at TI6 could be possible -- but as it stands now, thats a tall order.15. Escape GamingThe most promising of the four wild-card teams, Escape, has some heavy-hitting talent on its side that could put it over for securing a spot at the main event. Adrian Era Kryeziu and the rest are no strangers to competing with the best, and Escape could make a dent in the bracket if it makes it out of the wild-card competition.16. EHOMELike most other Chinese teams, EHOME has little stats to back it up outside of its own region. Despite a fourth place finish at the Frankfurt Major, EHOME fell much lower in the major in Shanghai and failed to qualify for Manila. These five players have competed and played with some of the best in China. In group stage of The International? It gets harder to see EHOME making a solid push into the bracket.17. ComplexityThe American hope in the wild card qualifiers has a rough road ahead. After a tough showing in Manila and a 1-2 exit in ESL One Frankfurt, Complexity has struggled to find the push that put it in fourth at Epicenter. The team recently recruited the help of Alan Nahaz Bester to coach, and cores Rasmus Chessie Blomdin and Linus Limmp Blomdin have had some impressive showings recently. Its a tough road, but Complexity has the tools to make it if everything aligns perfectly.18. ExecrationThe last team on our list has the toughest road ahead, with little international experience and little to show in the way of quality wins. But bigger runs have been built on less at The International, where less tape on a team could mean a significant advantage going in. Theres little reason to suspect it might happen, but its always a joy to be proven wrong and see a team make a name for itself on the big stage in Seattle. 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